Contested Futures: Scenario Building for the Eastern Amazon at the Crossroads of Sovereignty, Conservation, and Development

Abstract

The Eastern Amazon, particularly the state of Pará, lies at the epicenter of tensions between environmental conservation, economic exploitation, and the territorial rights of traditional peoples. This article inverts the conventional foresight lens by asking: what futures would the Amazon itself demand? Drawing on Causal Layered Analysis and Three Horizons, the study maps the structural forces and worldview conflicts shaping Pará’s trajectory toward 2050. At its core, the research identifies a fundamental tension between a dominant paradigm in which sustainability serves capital and an emergent one in which sustainability functions as a societal commitment. Contrasting scenarios are developed and assessed in terms of their impacts on Indigenous peoples, Quilombola communities, riverine populations, urban residents, and private actors. The article further offers anticipatory recommendations aimed at fostering a more equitable and regenerative Amazonian future, grounded in climate justice and shared territorial governance.