I futuri della competitività nell’era dell’IA: quattro scenari alternativi

Abstract

This paper presents the results of research conducted by the ICSC Observatory, exploring future scenarios up to 2035, focusing on the competitiveness of Italian medium-to-large enterprises shaped by artificial intelligence and its enabling technologies. The study provides structured insights into plausible futures and their strategic implications for businesses and is grounded in the context of rapid technological innovation, reinforced by EU and national initiatives in emerging technologies. Using a strategic foresight methodology, the study was carried out through expert workshops combining horizon scanning, foresight radar analysis and scenario building. Four scenarios were developed based on two key drivers—socioeconomic competitiveness and technological sovereignty—highlighting opportunities and risks for Italian enterprises. The paper concludes identifying future research directions related to infrastructure development, talents, and long-term industrial competitiveness.