Futuri possibili del lusso al 2050: un modello di scenarizzazione per ripensare la creatività in tempi di crisi sistemiche

Abstract

This paper adapts the ETUI (European Trade Union Institute) 2x2 foresight framework to explore four possible futures for the luxury sector in 2050, focusing on the strategic role of creative decision-making. While ETUI’s original model analyzes European socio-economic trajectories based on climate change mitigation and inequality, this research reinterprets the two axes from a sectoral perspective: environmental pressure on materials and production, and the concentration of economic and creative power in the hands of a few conglomerates. Through scenario building, the study investigates how future luxury creativity could evolve under varying structural conditions—ranging from closed oligopolies to decentralized creative ecosystems. The result is a foresight map designed not to predict the future, but to equip brands with strategic lenses for navigating systemic uncertainty and redefining their creative positioning in times of turbulence.