In cerca di un “metodo” per la previsione nella sociologia: dal positivismo di Comte all’anarchismo metodologico di Feyerabend

Abstract

Through a comparative analysis of Comte, Marx, Wells, and Popper, this article examines the methodological changes required for sociology to become a fully future-oriented scientific discipline. It starts from the question of whether sociology can effectively incorporate, codify, and interpret the future, arguing that classical sociology has largely confined its analysis to the past and present. The article first reviews the methodological foundations of traditional sociology, showing how Comte and Marx sought to establish a systematic and scientific approach to the study of society. While this strengthened sociology’s scientific ambitions, it also constrained creativity and methodological flexibility. Building on Feyerabend’s critique of methodological rigidity, the paper argues that such limitations have prevented sociologists from imaginatively exploring alternative futures. It then discusses Wells’ conception of the future as a legitimate object of inquiry and Popper’s critique of historicism, highlighting how deterministic approaches in classical sociology fail to anticipate social change. Rather than predicting the future, traditional sociology has mainly identified historical trends and recurring patterns. The final section argues that sociology should adopt a more pluralistic and methodologically open approach by integrating the theories and methods of Futures Studies. Forecasting, foresight, and anticipation offer complementary tools that enable researchers to investigate possible, probable, and preferable futures without being restricted to purely quantitative or qualitative methods. Their collaborative and interdisciplinary nature also preserves the creativity and intellectual autonomy of the sociologist. The article concludes that the integration of sociology and Futures Studies would transform sociology from a discipline primarily concerned with explaining the past into one capable of systematically exploring alternative futures and supporting anticipatory thinking. Such a synthesis would represent an important step toward a more strategic, reflexive, and scientifically robust sociology.