Narrazioni, trasformazioni e futuri possibili della provincia di Caserta: un’analisi attraverso il modello dei Tre Orizzonti

Abstract

This contribution analyses the province of Caserta as an emblematic case of territorial transformation within a highly complex socio-economic context. Adopting the Three Horizons (3H) model as a strategic foresight framework, the study interprets the territory through the interplay between negative narratives of decline (H1), emerging counter-narratives driven by eco-sustainable innovation (H2), and a long-term desirable future grounded in shared vision and governance capacity (H3). Based on desk research combining scientific literature, institutional reports and territorial data, the analysis highlights both persistent structural weaknesses and promising dynamics in green innovation, agro-food value chains and digital transition. The paper argues that Caserta should not be framed as a declining area, but as a laboratory of plural futures, where systemic innovation, collective learning and anticipatory governance represent key conditions for territorial regeneration.