Perché i Futures Studies vanno considerati (a buon diritto) dentro la scienza: una riflessione metodologica

Abstract

Aim of this work is focusing the link between Futures Studies – and, in particular, the social and human prevision – and Methodology of Social Science. It can help to better understanding what defines the reliability of any kind of research work aimed at possible futures. Since the dawn of scientific though, the ability to provide a reliable forecast was strictly related to the concept of science/scientific: e.g., a successful scientific experiment allows not only to draw conclusions on the causes of a phenomenon, but also to formulate predictions about it. Therefore, the link between prevision and “scientificity” immediately appears as an important topic in defining scientificity itself. In the 20th century, further elements emerged by the long and complex debate on scientific explanation that started in 1948, after the publication of a paper by Carl Gustav Hempel and Paul Oppenheim. In the contemporary world, a reflection on what makes studying futures something scientific is perhaps more than doing theory: the topic involves, in fact, the entire research path of Futures Studies.