Open Your Board: scenari, interazioni e impatti tra analisi dei Megatrend e Four Futures

Abstract

This paper presents the methodology and findings of the workshop ‘Open Your Board: scenarios, interactions and impacts between Megatrend analysis and the Four Futures’, which was piloted during the Italian Institute for the Future’s Futures Studies 2025 Conference (Naples, 26 September 2025). The workshop integrates the analysis of global megatrends, Jim Dator’s Four Futures framework and the proprietary MTO© (Operational Transformative Matrix) methodology to explore the future of the boards of directors of Italian SMEs in relation to the arrival of new generations. Involving around 50 participants with diverse backgrounds – academics, professionals and business executives – the workshop produced four scenarios for 2040, each developed by a separate group based on a different organisation in terms of sector and type. The final discussion between the groups revealed a common thread running through all the scenarios: in every future archetype, the distinguishing factor proved to be the presence or absence of the younger generations’ vision regarding their relationship with work and with organisations. This finding suggests that the generational issue on boards is not merely one possible scenario amongst others, but a structural factor shaping the future of Italian SMEs, regardless of how that future unfolds.